Pre-registration: entry5m/docs/2026-09-07-entry5m-v9-indicator-exit-only-prereg.md at commit 5c845f2 (two cells, each judged on its own), committed before the code (e9a1d2b) and before this run. Code HEAD at run time: e9a1d2b. Base: v3 (research/2026-09-06-entry5m-v3-fixed3r-screen.md).
Primary cell (unmodified): v3's bias and stop, target_mode = "none" (no take-profit), no scale-out, exit_on_opp_div = True; four symbols, same data windows as the v1 record.
Verdict (copied from the table below): FAIL overall: 0 of 3 groups (need 2) — group usd FAIL, group metal FAIL, group jpy FAIL.
This cell as specified is dead; no parameter search was run.
Per-symbol observations (funnel counters, as printed; no adjustments implied):
FAIL — n 385 (ok; v3 415), PF 0.99 / ex-outlier PF 0.87 (fail; v3 1.21 / 1.17), expectancy -0.005 R (fail), best month share n/a, net R negative (fail), halves 16.4 / -18.4 R (fail). Win rate 29.6% (v3 39.8%), net R -2.0 (v3 +53.9), max drawdown 56.6 R, 2 of 385 trades closed by the opposite-side divergence, average hold 160.5 bars.FAIL — n 353 (ok; v3 388), PF 1.19 / ex-outlier PF 0.92 (fail; v3 1.08 / 1.04), expectancy 0.149 R (ok), best month share 43.5% (fail), halves 78.0 / -25.5 R (fail). Win rate 24.1% (v3 35.1%), net R 52.5 (v3 +19.6), max drawdown 64.9 R, 4 of 353 trades closed by the opposite-side divergence, average hold 171.2 bars.FAIL — n 320 (ok; v3 356), PF 0.75 / ex-outlier PF 0.64 (fail; v3 0.89 / 0.85), expectancy -0.205 R (fail), best month share n/a, net R negative (fail), halves -19.4 / -46.3 R (fail). Win rate 25.9% (v3 34.3%), net R -65.6 (v3 -28.4), max drawdown 84.9 R, 3 of 320 trades closed by the opposite-side divergence, average hold 154.1 bars.FAIL — n 366 (ok; v3 406), PF 0.78 / ex-outlier PF 0.68 (fail; v3 0.92 / 0.89), expectancy -0.177 R (fail), best month share n/a, net R negative (fail), halves 7.6 / -72.4 R (fail). Win rate 23.0% (v3 33.0%), net R -64.8 (v3 -21.9), max drawdown 99.0 R, 4 of 366 trades closed by the opposite-side divergence, average hold 153.4 bars.Reading. The opposite-side divergence closed only 2-4 trades per symbol in five years: on this base an opposite fire replaces the bias, and a position is rarely still open when that happens (most biases end at the zero-touch level, on contradiction or on timeout with the trade already out). So 9b is, in effect, v3 with the take-profit removed: every winner runs to a bias-end close. Net R against v3: EURUSD +53.9 to −2.0 R, GBPUSD +19.6 to +52.5 R (PF 1.19, ex-outlier 0.92, second half −25.5 R — again three trades), gold and EURJPY worse; win rates 23-30%, drawdowns 57-99 R. The 15m secondary run (2026-09-07-entry5m-v9b-oppdiv-only-screen-15m.md) fails 0 of 3.
The sensitivity block below is reported as required and is NOT judged.
symbol n win% netR expR PF exPF ddR month share% h1R h2R bars verdict
EURJPY 366 23.0 -64.8 -0.177 0.78 0.68 99.0 2022-04 - 7.6 -72.4 153.4 FAIL
EURUSD 385 29.6 -2.0 -0.005 0.99 0.87 56.6 2024-06 - 16.4 -18.4 160.5 FAIL
GBPUSD 353 24.1 52.5 0.149 1.19 0.92 64.9 2021-11 43.5 78.0 -25.5 171.2 FAIL
XAUUSD 320 25.9 -65.6 -0.205 0.75 0.64 84.9 2022-10 - -19.4 -46.3 154.1 FAIL
bias / pullback funnel:
EURJPY biases=172 biases_RDIV=162 biases_HDIV=10 biases_ARM=0 bias_end_target=84 bias_end_contradiction=35 bias_end_timeout=29 bias_end_replaced=24 bias_end_range_end=0 bias_no_target=0 pullbacks_too_short=2235 pullbacks_qualifying=6579 rr_rejected=948 already_broken=327 skipped_in_position=3926 orders_placed=1378 cancel_extreme_taken=718 cancel_expired=1 cancel_bias_end=3 cancel_replaced=290 filled=366 target_beyond_zero_touch=0 partial_exits=0 exit_opp_tri=0 exit_opp_div=4
EURUSD biases=235 biases_RDIV=225 biases_HDIV=10 biases_ARM=0 bias_end_target=120 bias_end_contradiction=50 bias_end_timeout=28 bias_end_replaced=37 bias_end_range_end=0 bias_no_target=0 pullbacks_too_short=2455 pullbacks_qualifying=7010 rr_rejected=1055 already_broken=332 skipped_in_position=4261 orders_placed=1362 cancel_extreme_taken=693 cancel_expired=0 cancel_bias_end=4 cancel_replaced=280 filled=385 target_beyond_zero_touch=0 partial_exits=0 exit_opp_tri=0 exit_opp_div=2
GBPUSD biases=185 biases_RDIV=179 biases_HDIV=6 biases_ARM=0 bias_end_target=87 bias_end_contradiction=35 bias_end_timeout=33 bias_end_replaced=30 bias_end_range_end=0 bias_no_target=0 pullbacks_too_short=2375 pullbacks_qualifying=6978 rr_rejected=1142 already_broken=291 skipped_in_position=4203 orders_placed=1342 cancel_extreme_taken=737 cancel_expired=2 cancel_bias_end=4 cancel_replaced=246 filled=353 target_beyond_zero_touch=0 partial_exits=0 exit_opp_tri=0 exit_opp_div=4
XAUUSD biases=171 biases_RDIV=167 biases_HDIV=4 biases_ARM=0 bias_end_target=83 bias_end_contradiction=35 bias_end_timeout=26 bias_end_replaced=27 bias_end_range_end=0 bias_no_target=0 pullbacks_too_short=2004 pullbacks_qualifying=6046 rr_rejected=1101 already_broken=274 skipped_in_position=3433 orders_placed=1238 cancel_extreme_taken=659 cancel_expired=0 cancel_bias_end=4 cancel_replaced=255 filled=320 target_beyond_zero_touch=0 partial_exits=0 exit_opp_tri=0 exit_opp_div=3
FAIL group usd (EURUSD, GBPUSD)
FAIL group metal (XAUUSD)
FAIL group jpy (EURJPY)
FAIL overall: 0 of 3 groups (need 2)
sensitivity (NOT judged): net R / PF / n per cell
cell EURJPY EURUSD GBPUSD XAUUSD
N=2 rr=1.0 -75.5 0.77 395 22.1 1.07 417 30.8 1.10 384 -122.0 0.62 361
N=2 rr=1.5 -75.5 0.77 395 22.1 1.07 417 30.8 1.10 384 -122.0 0.62 361
N=3 rr=1.0 -64.8 0.78 366 -2.0 0.99 385 52.5 1.19 353 -65.6 0.75 320
N=3 rr=1.5 -64.8 0.78 366 -2.0 0.99 385 52.5 1.19 353 -65.6 0.75 320
N=5 rr=1.0 -34.8 0.84 295 7.2 1.03 341 48.0 1.22 300 -45.6 0.80 290
N=5 rr=1.5 -34.8 0.84 295 7.2 1.03 341 48.0 1.22 300 -45.6 0.80 290