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entry5m v8 — arm-triggered bias on four symbols with an opposite-side divergence take-profit: pre-registration

Status: pre-registered 2026-09-07 (commit 37b4561), built (a7a8dfd) and run the same day; verdict: FAIL, 0 of 3 groups, and the exit fired 0 times on every symbol — it cannot fire on the arm base (see research/2026-09-07-entry5m-v8-arm-oppdiv-screen.md). Section 4 (the Pine input) is NOT built: the input would be empty in arm mode and a relabelling of the existing bias-end exit in divergence mode (controller ruling 2026-09-07). Parents: v4 2026-09-06-entry5m-v4-xau-arm-prereg.md (arm bias, XAUUSD only, FAIL), v7 2026-09-07-entry5m-v7-opptri-prereg.md (opposite-side triangle exit on v3, FAIL 0/3).

1. The variant (Daniel, 2026-09-07)

"Try take profit on divergence on opposite side." On the divergence-based bias (v3) an opposite-side fire already replaces the bias and closes the trade at that bar's close, so the rule is only new on the arm-triggered bias, where divergence fires are otherwise ignored. Decided with Daniel: test it on the arm-triggered bias on all four symbols.

Question Decision
Base Extreme-arm bias (bias_source = "arm", arm_tier = "Extreme"): bias from the H1 extreme-triangle arm, alive until its oscillator range ends / opposite arm / 96 H1; stop at the running H1 range extreme (stop_mode = "h1_extreme"); fixed 3R target; no scale-out; no triangle exit
Trigger A ZTD divergence fire on the bias timeframe on the side opposite to the trade (sigBull != 0 for a short trade, sigBear != 0 for a long trade), RDIV or HDIV, read on the H1 close
Combination Whichever comes first: the 3R target, the stop, the bias end, or the opposite-side divergence. Exits only: the arm bias and pending orders carry on
Timing The trade is closed at the close of the first 5m bar after that H1 close (same mechanics as the v7 triangle exit), reason opp_div
Instruments EURUSD, GBPUSD, XAUUSD, EURJPY, five-year Tickstory data

2. Exact rule change

  • Entry5mConfig.exit_on_opp_div: bool = False (v1-v7 unchanged when False).
  • BiasTracker.on_h1_close: when the flag is on and a bias is active, an ("opp_div", bias) event is emitted (after any opp_tri event, before the bar's end/start events) on an H1 close whose row has the opposite-side fire; both bias sources (in divergence mode it only relabels an exit the replacement would have made).
  • Runner: on opp_div with an open position, broker.close_at(i, t, close, "opp_div"); counter exit_opp_div.

3. Primary cell (judged) and criteria

pivot_n = 3, min_pb_bars = 3, timeout_h1 = 96, min_rr = 1.0, pending_max_bars = 48, max_hold_bars = 0, stop_mode = "h1_extreme", target_mode = "fixed_r", target_r = 3.0, bias_source = "arm", arm_tier = "Extreme", scale_out_r = 0, exit_on_opp_tri = False, exit_on_opp_div = True, ZTD defaults, on the four symbols.

Criteria: the v1 spec's section 8 verbatim (at least 200 trades; PF > 1.15 and ex-outlier PF > 1.0; expectancy > +0.05 R; best month <= 35% of net R; both calendar halves net-positive; at least two of the three groups usd/metal/jpy, GBPUSD net R not negative). A fail means this variant is dead as specified; no parameter search follows. Sensitivity grid printed, NOT judged.

Reference line, declared now and NOT judged: the same cell with exit_on_opp_div = False (the arm base alone on the four symbols, never run before) is printed beside the judged cell so the exit's effect can be read. It is a reference, not a second hypothesis.

Expected side effects, stated now: opposite divergences are rarer than opposite triangles (a fire needs a full range-1/zero-touch/range-2 cycle), so fewer early exits than v7; the arm base on the pairs is unknown territory.

4. The Pine indicator

Regardless of the verdict, the indicator gets the input Exit on opposite-side HTF divergence (default off) with the same mechanics (hSigBull/hSigBear are already on the HTF surface), exit code 6 (opp divergence) in the data window, drawings and alerts; verified by a parity export with the input on (arm source).