CAT researchOverviewEURUSDGBPUSDXAUUSDGBPCADEURCADAUDJPYGBPJPYResearch notes

entry5m v3 (fixed 3R target, H1-extreme stop) pre-registered screen — run record

Pre-registration: entry5m/docs/2026-09-06-entry5m-v3-fixed3r-prereg.md at commit bd9034e, committed before the code (151e0e1) and before this run. Code HEAD at run time: 151e0e1. Parents: v1 spec and record (2026-09-06-entry5m-design.md, research/2026-09-06-entry5m-screen.md, FAIL 0/3); v2 (research/2026-09-06-entry5m-v2-h1stop-screen.md, FAIL 0/3).

Primary cell (unmodified): N = 3, min_pb_bars = 3, timeout_h1 = 96, min_rr = 1.0, pending_max_bars = 48, max_hold_bars = 0, stop_mode = h1_extreme, target_mode = fixed_r, target_r = 3.0, ZTD defaults. Same data windows as the v1 record.

Verdict (copied from the table below): FAIL overall: 1 of 3 groups (need 2) — group usd (EURUSD, GBPUSD) PASS, group metal (XAUUSD) FAIL, group jpy (EURJPY) FAIL.

The variant as specified is dead; no parameter search was run (prereg section 3, parent spec section 8).

What the pre-registration required and what happened. EURUSD passes all five sub-criteria on its own (n 415, PF 1.21, ex-outlier PF 1.17, expectancy 0.130 R, best month 17.1%, halves 39.1 / 14.9 R) and GBPUSD's net R is not negative, so the usd group passes. XAUUSD and EURJPY are net-negative with PF below 1 and a negative second half, so the metal and jpy groups fail. The rule needed two of three groups; it has one. Under the criteria written before the run this is a fail, and it is exactly the case the group rule exists for: one correlated pair passing is one test, not evidence. The 15m secondary run (2026-09-06-entry5m-v3-fixed3r-screen-15m.md) fails 0 of 3.

Per-symbol observations (funnel counters, as printed; no adjustments implied):

  • EURUSD. 235 H1 biases (unchanged from v1/v2: the bias layer is identical). 6485 pullbacks qualified; 958 rejected because the H1 extreme sat on the wrong side of the entry (price already beyond the divergence extreme between H1 closes, so the risk is not positive), 330 already broken, 3745 skipped in position. 1452 orders placed, of which 566 had their 3R target beyond the zero-touch level (closed at bias end if not stopped); 684 cancelled at the H1 extreme, 5 at bias end, 347 replaced; 415 filled. 415 trades, 165 won / 250 lost (win rate 39.8%), net R 53.9, PF 1.21, ex-outlier PF 1.17, expectancy 0.130 R, max drawdown 21.6 R, best month 2024-06 at 17.1% of net, halves 39.1 / 14.9 R, average hold 141.6 bars.
  • GBPUSD. 185 H1 biases (unchanged from v1/v2: the bias layer is identical). 6535 pullbacks qualified; 1066 rejected because the H1 extreme sat on the wrong side of the entry (price already beyond the divergence extreme between H1 closes, so the risk is not positive), 292 already broken, 3760 skipped in position. 1417 orders placed, of which 514 had their 3R target beyond the zero-touch level (closed at bias end if not stopped); 732 cancelled at the H1 extreme, 6 at bias end, 289 replaced; 388 filled. 388 trades, 136 won / 252 lost (win rate 35.1%), net R 19.6, PF 1.08, ex-outlier PF 1.04, expectancy 0.051 R, max drawdown 25.7 R, best month 2025-06 at 38.0% of net, halves 19.3 / 0.4 R, average hold 150.0 bars.
  • XAUUSD. 171 H1 biases (unchanged from v1/v2: the bias layer is identical). 5954 pullbacks qualified; 1078 rejected because the H1 extreme sat on the wrong side of the entry (price already beyond the divergence extreme between H1 closes, so the risk is not positive), 283 already broken, 3288 skipped in position. 1305 orders placed, of which 449 had their 3R target beyond the zero-touch level (closed at bias end if not stopped); 657 cancelled at the H1 extreme, 4 at bias end, 288 replaced; 356 filled. 356 trades, 122 won / 234 lost (win rate 34.3%), net R -28.4, PF 0.89, ex-outlier PF 0.85, expectancy -0.080 R, max drawdown 44.0 R, best month 2022-10 (net R negative), halves 1.5 / -29.9 R, average hold 134.3 bars.
  • EURJPY. 172 H1 biases (unchanged from v1/v2: the bias layer is identical). 6325 pullbacks qualified; 907 rejected because the H1 extreme sat on the wrong side of the entry (price already beyond the divergence extreme between H1 closes, so the risk is not positive), 333 already broken, 3616 skipped in position. 1469 orders placed, of which 542 had their 3R target beyond the zero-touch level (closed at bias end if not stopped); 713 cancelled at the H1 extreme, 3 at bias end, 346 replaced; 406 filled. 406 trades, 134 won / 272 lost (win rate 33.0%), net R -21.9, PF 0.92, ex-outlier PF 0.89, expectancy -0.054 R, max drawdown 59.9 R, best month 2022-04 (net R negative), halves 22.0 / -43.8 R, average hold 133.3 bars.

Compared with v2 (same stop, zero-touch target): win rates rose from 20-27% to 33-40% and drawdowns roughly halved on every symbol, because the fixed 3R target is usually nearer than the zero-touch level (about 37-39% of orders had the 3R target beyond it and could only close at bias end). Net R improved on all four symbols but only EURUSD crosses the criteria. The sensitivity block below is reported as required and is NOT judged; min_rr does not bind under a fixed target, so its two rows are identical by construction.

entry5m screen tf=5m stop_mode=h1_extreme target_mode=fixed_r target_r=3.0 symbols=EURUSD,GBPUSD,XAUUSD,EURJPY

  symbol      n    win%      netR     expR      PF    exPF      ddR     month   share%       h1R       h2R    bars  verdict
  EURJPY    406    33.0     -21.9   -0.054    0.92    0.89     59.9   2022-04        -      22.0     -43.8   133.3     FAIL
  EURUSD    415    39.8      53.9    0.130    1.21    1.17     21.6   2024-06     17.1      39.1      14.9   141.6     PASS
  GBPUSD    388    35.1      19.6    0.051    1.08    1.04     25.7   2025-06     38.0      19.3       0.4   150.0     FAIL
  XAUUSD    356    34.3     -28.4   -0.080    0.89    0.85     44.0   2022-10        -       1.5     -29.9   134.3     FAIL

bias / pullback funnel:
  EURJPY   biases=172  biases_RDIV=162  biases_HDIV=10  bias_end_target=84  bias_end_contradiction=35  bias_end_timeout=29  bias_end_replaced=24  bias_no_target=0  pullbacks_too_short=2081  pullbacks_qualifying=6325  rr_rejected=907  already_broken=333  skipped_in_position=3616  orders_placed=1469  cancel_extreme_taken=713  cancel_expired=1  cancel_bias_end=3  cancel_replaced=346  filled=406  target_beyond_zero_touch=542
  EURUSD   biases=235  biases_RDIV=225  biases_HDIV=10  bias_end_target=120  bias_end_contradiction=50  bias_end_timeout=28  bias_end_replaced=37  bias_no_target=0  pullbacks_too_short=2113  pullbacks_qualifying=6485  rr_rejected=958  already_broken=330  skipped_in_position=3745  orders_placed=1452  cancel_extreme_taken=684  cancel_expired=1  cancel_bias_end=5  cancel_replaced=347  filled=415  target_beyond_zero_touch=566
  GBPUSD   biases=185  biases_RDIV=179  biases_HDIV=6  bias_end_target=87  bias_end_contradiction=35  bias_end_timeout=33  bias_end_replaced=30  bias_no_target=0  pullbacks_too_short=2124  pullbacks_qualifying=6535  rr_rejected=1066  already_broken=292  skipped_in_position=3760  orders_placed=1417  cancel_extreme_taken=732  cancel_expired=2  cancel_bias_end=6  cancel_replaced=289  filled=388  target_beyond_zero_touch=514
  XAUUSD   biases=171  biases_RDIV=167  biases_HDIV=4  bias_end_target=83  bias_end_contradiction=35  bias_end_timeout=26  bias_end_replaced=27  bias_no_target=0  pullbacks_too_short=1950  pullbacks_qualifying=5954  rr_rejected=1078  already_broken=283  skipped_in_position=3288  orders_placed=1305  cancel_extreme_taken=657  cancel_expired=0  cancel_bias_end=4  cancel_replaced=288  filled=356  target_beyond_zero_touch=449

  PASS  group usd (EURUSD, GBPUSD)
  FAIL  group metal (XAUUSD)
  FAIL  group jpy (EURJPY)
  FAIL  overall: 1 of 3 groups (need 2)

sensitivity (NOT judged): net R / PF / n per cell
cell                        EURJPY                  EURUSD                  GBPUSD                  XAUUSD
N=2 rr=1.0    -38.1   0.88    438      31.0   1.11    452      -0.5   1.00    422     -63.2   0.80    403
N=2 rr=1.5    -38.1   0.88    438      31.0   1.11    452      -0.5   1.00    422     -63.2   0.80    403
N=3 rr=1.0    -21.9   0.92    406      53.9   1.21    415      19.6   1.08    388     -28.4   0.89    356
N=3 rr=1.5    -21.9   0.92    406      53.9   1.21    415      19.6   1.08    388     -28.4   0.89    356
N=5 rr=1.0      4.4   1.02    328      38.6   1.17    362      18.0   1.08    327     -29.4   0.86    311
N=5 rr=1.5      4.4   1.02    328      38.6   1.17    362      18.0   1.08    327     -29.4   0.86    311